Free tool

GLP‑1 weight timeline

From the SURMOUNT-1 and STEP 1 trial averages, with how much of the loss could be muscle and how protein protects it.

Medication
Maintenance dose

Educational estimate, not medical advice. Your clinician decides what is right for you. How this is calculated.

How it works

Weight loss on a GLP-1 is front-loaded: it is fastest in the first months and flattens toward a plateau. A straight line would promise the wrong thing in both halves, so this tool draws the curve the trials saw.

The plateau comes from the trial averages at 68 to 72 weeks: about 21% below starting weight on tirzepatide at the top dose (SURMOUNT-1) and about 15% on semaglutide 2.4 mg (STEP 1). Lower maintenance doses scale it down, and if you are not sure of your dose the tool assumes a little less, so it never over-promises.

weight(t) = start − plateau × (1 − e^(−t / 29.4 weeks))

Muscle is the part that is in play

In the trials' body-composition substudies, about a quarter (tirzepatide) to about two fifths (semaglutide) of the weight lost was lean mass. Enough protein, with some strength work, is the lever with the best evidence for keeping more of it. Morning states that conservatively, as protecting up to about a third of that lean loss.

Limits

These are averages across thousands of people. Your result will differ, sometimes a lot, and plateaus, dose changes and pauses are all normal. It is not a target and not medical advice.

Questions

Why does the curve flatten?

Your body adapts as you lose weight, and appetite settles at a new level. In the trials, most of the loss happened in the first 6 to 9 months and then leveled off.

My goal is past the plateau. Is it impossible?

No. Many people go beyond the average, and many go less far. Getting past it usually takes longer and more than the medication: protein, movement, sleep and steady habits.

Does this tell me which dose to take?

No. Pick the dose your clinician has you on, or not sure. Dose decisions belong to you and your clinician.

Sources

  • Jastreboff AM et al. Tirzepatide once weekly for the treatment of obesity (SURMOUNT-1). N Engl J Med 2022;387:205–216.
  • Wilding JPH et al. Once-weekly semaglutide in adults with overweight or obesity (STEP 1). N Engl J Med 2021;384:989–1002.
  • Body-composition (DXA) substudies of STEP 1 and SURMOUNT-1.
  • Wycherley TP et al. Effects of energy-restricted high-protein, low-fat compared with standard-protein, low-fat diets: a meta-analysis. Am J Clin Nutr 2012;96:1281–1298.

Related tools

Protein calculatorYour daily protein target on a GLP-1, split per meal, with easy foods for low-appetite days.Titration schedulesThe label's step-up for Wegovy, Ozempic, Mounjaro and Zepbound, as dates from your first dose.Water calculatorHow much to drink in a day, in glasses, because a GLP-1 quiets thirst too.

Guides that go deeper

Weight-loss plateaus on a GLP‑1In trials, weight loss on semaglutide leveled off near week 60, and most people on tirzepatide plateaued by week 72. What a stall means and what helps.Muscle loss on a GLP‑1, and how to protect itIn trial scans, about a quarter of weight lost on tirzepatide and about 40% on semaglutide was lean mass. Protein and strength training help.Semaglutide vs tirzepatide, side by sideIn the head-to-head SURMOUNT-5 trial, tirzepatide averaged 20.2% weight loss at 72 weeks vs 13.7% for semaglutide. Both mainly cause gut side effects.Coming off a GLP‑1: how to keep the weight offIn trials, most people regained a large share of lost weight within a year of stopping semaglutide or tirzepatide. Here is what helps.

All guides and tools →

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